The world of venture capital is abuzz with a new wave of investment opportunities, and at the heart of it all is Eclipse Ventures and its founder, Lior Susan. Susan's vision, once considered an outlier in Silicon Valley, has now become a focal point for tech enthusiasts and investors alike.
The Physical-World Thesis
Susan's firm, Eclipse, has long believed in the immense potential of investing in physical-world technologies. With a significant portion of global GDP tied to the physical realm, Susan's thesis was that backing companies beyond pure software could yield substantial returns. And it seems he was right.
A Windfall and a Beginning
The recent success story of Cerebras Systems, a semiconductor company, is a testament to Susan's vision. Eclipse's early investment in Cerebras has now resulted in a massive $2.5 billion return, a testament to the firm's foresight and the growing recognition of physical-world tech's value.
Beyond Software
Public markets and startup founders are now catching on to this trend. Companies like TSMC and Micron are hitting new highs, and elite founders are eager to explore the intersection of hardware and software. Susan believes that the 'real moat' in software is diminishing, and that 'vibe coding' has its limits.
The Rise of Physical-World Tech
It's not just semiconductors; Eclipse's portfolio companies spanning robotics, energy, and defense, have raised an impressive $15 billion from external investors in the last year alone. This late-stage momentum is a stark contrast to the firm's early years, where its portfolio companies raised less than $4 billion in total over eight years.
A Track Record to Envy
The recent follow-on rounds for Eclipse's portfolio companies are a testament to their success. Massive late-stage deals this year include Wayve's $1.2 billion raise, True Anomaly's $650 million, Bedrock Robotics' $270 million, and Oxide Computer's $200 million. Eclipse's early-stage investments in these companies are now paying off handsomely.
AI as a Catalyst
At first glance, one might attribute this investor enthusiasm to AI's growing influence. AI's role as an infrastructure input, from chips to data centers, and its potential to revolutionize robotics, are certainly factors. However, Susan argues that other powerful forces are at play.
The Perfect Storm
Susan believes that the success of physical-world tech requires a combination of factors: technology (in this case, AI), capital, customer demand, talent, and policy. With investors and engineers shifting focus from SaaS to sectors like robotics and mining, and with favorable government regulations and subsidies, the stars have aligned for physical-world tech.
A New Era
As Susan puts it, this is the first time in American history, since the days of Henry Ford and Carnegie, that these five forces have come together so perfectly. For builders and investors like Eclipse, it's an opportune moment to capitalize on this unique convergence of factors.
Conclusion
The story of Eclipse Ventures and its founder, Lior Susan, is a fascinating one. It showcases the power of vision, persistence, and the ability to spot trends before they become mainstream. As physical-world tech continues to gain momentum, Eclipse's early bets and success stories will undoubtedly shape the future of this exciting sector.
